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27 Dec 2004
The Torino Impact Hazard Scale was created in 1995 to categorize near-Earth object impact hazards. Until last week, no object had been scored higher than a 1 (out of 10). The asteroid 2004 MN4 has been given a 4. NASA is reporting that there is a 1 in 37 (2.7 percent) chance that the 390-meter rock will hit the Earth on Friday 13 April 2029. More at Wikipedia.
nomad says:
“Scientists predict that, with a chance of over 97 percent, additional data will allow for 2004 MN4 to be re-rated as a level zero (no threat) object.”
Statistics people are put on the earth to confuse me. If there’s a 2.7% chance that it’ll hit the earth, then there’s a 97.3% chance that it won’t. Of course the chance that additional data (including the data from April 14th 2029 about whether the asteroid hit or not) will allow it to be re-rated as level zero is over 97 percent!
Logan says:
97.3 is over 97. That’s all they’re saying.
nomad says:
I know but they make it sound so complicated when it’s not: “we’re going to die in 2029″ is all they need to say
nomad says:
or not