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4 Nov 2004
It's easy to think of the country in Red states and Blue states, especially for those of us who are a little bitter about the results of the election. But the truth of the matter is that it's really not that clear-cut.
Update 11-05: Someone made a county-by-county version of the map , too.
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29 Oct 2004
Red Sox World Series victories predict incumbent presidential defeat with 100% accuracy!
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26 Oct 2004
Seven days to go. "You know what they call a candidate who's counting on a lot of new voters? A loser." -- James Carville
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14 Oct 2004
Remember the 2000 election (sure you do), when Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote? Well, it's happened before, and it's one of the strongest arguments that people use for abolishing the electoral college (an argument that I haven't chosen a side on, to be honest). It got me thinking: how much could a candidate lose the popular vote by and still win the electoral vote? The candidate would have to get half (plus one) of the votes in "strong states", and zero votes in "weak states". In this case, a state's strength is defined as electoral votes per voter.
A candidate could win the election with only 21.7% of the national popular vote by just squeaking by in AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DC, DE, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MD, ME, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, NY, OK, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WV, and WY and getting no votes in any other states. You'll note that CT, MD, and VA are "weaker" states than California, but since it has such a large population, including it instead of the three weaker states increases the final total quite a bit.
Note that I had to ignore Maine and Nebraska's congressional district method, since it would add too many extra variables.
Update 10-15: I should probably point out that I used the turnout numbers for the 2000 election, since I assumed that was a good enough estimate, but the new electoral vote counts (i.e. 7 for CT instead of 8). You can check out my actual data.
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8 Oct 2004
Detailed statistical election poll analysis. Why dead-even polls mean that Bush will be buried on November 2. I won't buy it until the polls are closed, but it's very well reasoned and extremely well informed. Via Nomad.
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7 Oct 2004
The RNC fear-phrase video (Quicktime). Hypnotizing. (via)
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6 Oct 2004
Now you, too, can forget Poland with this new You Forgot Poland Bumper Sticker!
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5 Oct 2004
You may or may not be aware that my wife, M, is a medical student. You might also be unaware of the fact that the Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate is a former trial lawyer. I am certain that you know that Doctors and Trial Lawyers are mortal enemies. I can respect how difficult it must be for her to decide whether to cast her vote for Kerry/Edwards or not.
In the interest in helping her to make an educated decision, based on his trial record, here is a list of major medical malpractice suits that he tried, mainly found on FindLaw. Copyright infringement, ahoy!
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4 Oct 2004
Presidential candidates listed on the ballot in the state of Connecticut: George W. Bush (Republican), John F. Kerry (Democratic), David Cobb (Green), Michael A. Peroutka (Concerned Citizens), Michael Badnarik (Libertarian), and Ralph Nader (no party designation).
For our New Yorker friends, the candidates there are Bush, Kerry, Badnarik, Nader, and Roger Calero (Socialist Workers Party).
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4 Oct 2004
This is a neat Perl-powered Presidential Debate analysis.